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Churn Risk

Calculates who may leave next. Every Monday, each paying customer is likely to leave, worth watching, or fine, with the reasons.

One of the seven in Churn Optimization. They share one churn file. The only emails are the short notes, and none goes out until you turn on auto-send.

Who to reach out to this week

By the time a customer cancels, it is too late to help. This calculates who may leave next: every Monday, each paying customer is likely to leave, worth watching, or fine, with the reasons in words anyone can check (“used it on one day in two weeks”, “nothing this week”), and what they pay. Check-in Emails writes to each one likely to leave.

What it does

  • Lists every paying customer from Stripe, with what they pay and whether their card is failing or they are set to cancel.
  • Reads what each one did in your product in the last two weeks.
  • Gives each a few plain points for how they use it, plus the warning signs that proved themselves. The most points: likely to leave.
  • Keeps each week’s list unchanged, and from eight weeks on says how many of the customers it called likely to leave really left.

The reveal

Thirty-five customers were likely to leave, paying $6,581 a month between them. Fourteen of the eighteen customers who left last quarter would have been on that list two weeks after they signed up.

Configuration

  • Where customers pay: Stripe.
  • Your usage source: whatever says what customers did, day by day.
  • Spend lines: if your product bills by use, what counts as low and high spend.
  • How often: when you ask, or every Monday, if an available scheduler can run the work and you approve it.

What it doesn’t do

  • It doesn’t write to customers. Check-in Emails does, from this list.
  • It doesn’t change its own points. Warning Signs does, and grades them.
  • It doesn’t edit a past week’s list.

Triggers

Runs when you ask (“who is likely to cancel”, “churn risk”). A weekly list needs a verified scheduler and your approval; otherwise it writes one list now.

Put Churn Risk to work

Calculates who may leave next. Every Monday, each paying customer is likely to leave, worth watching, or fine, with the reasons.